SpaceX is preparing for one of the most anticipated stock market debuts in modern financial history, but as excitement around the company reaches a fever pitch, not everyone is convinced the numbers add up.
Elon Musk’s aerospace and technology giant is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq later this month, with reports suggesting the company is targeting a staggering $75 billion raise. If achieved, the offering would become the largest initial public offering ever seen in the United States. Depending on which valuation estimate investors choose to believe, the company could enter public markets valued at anywhere between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion.
That enormous gap highlights one of the central debates surrounding the IPO: how much is SpaceX actually worth?
Morningstar Challenges the Market Narrative
Among the loudest skeptics is investment research firm Morningstar, whose analysts argue that investors may be paying far too much for the company at launch.
In a note released this week, Morningstar described SpaceX as “significantly overvalued” and assigned it a fair value estimate of roughly $780 billion. That figure sits nearly 48% below the company’s reported private-market valuation of $1.5 trillion and even further below the valuation being discussed ahead of the IPO.
The firm believes investors eager to gain exposure to the company may find more attractive entry points after the initial frenzy surrounding the listing subsides.
Morningstar’s analysts are particularly cautious about the role of artificial intelligence in the company’s valuation. Earlier this year, SpaceX completed an all-stock acquisition of Musk’s AI venture xAI, transforming it into a subsidiary and creating a combined business valued at approximately $1.25 trillion at the time of the transaction. The deal valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion.
While supporters see AI as a major growth engine, Morningstar argues the economics remain difficult to predict. Analysts described xAI’s competitive advantages as uncertain and warned that the business presents a “material threat of value destruction” if expectations fail to match reality.
A Company Still Searching for Consistent Profitability
Despite its reputation as one of the world’s most innovative companies, SpaceX is not yet consistently profitable.
The company reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in its most recent quarter after losing $4.94 billion during 2025. Financial disclosures reveal that Starlink continues to carry the business financially. The satellite internet division generated $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue, accounting for roughly 69% of total sales and standing as the company’s only profitable major segment.
The picture elsewhere is less encouraging. SpaceX’s traditional space operations posted an operating loss of $619 million, while the AI division lost approximately $2.5 billion during the same period.
Regulatory filings acknowledge the challenge. In its S-1 registration statement, SpaceX notes that it has a history of losses and may never achieve profitability. The company also warns that much of its future growth depends on technologies that remain largely unproven and that substantial capital spending will likely continue for years before AI products and services generate meaningful returns.
For investors accustomed to betting on Musk’s long-term vision, those disclosures may not come as a surprise. For others, they serve as a reminder that the company’s valuation rests heavily on expectations about the future rather than present-day earnings.
The Mechanics of the IPO
Although the company has not officially confirmed the exact launch date, several media outlets have reported that trading could begin as early as June 12.
SpaceX has reserved approximately 5% of IPO shares for selected employees and other individuals designated by company leadership. Those recipients will be exempt from certain lock-up restrictions that normally prevent insiders from selling shares immediately after an offering.
Musk himself has agreed not to sell stock for roughly one year following the IPO. According to regulatory filings, he controls 85.1% of the company’s voting power and owns 12.3% of its Class A shares. Other major shareholders will also face one-year restrictions, though the company has not disclosed the size of their positions.
The final IPO share price remains unknown. Once trading begins, retail investors are expected to gain access through major brokerage platforms including Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab.
Some analysts believe the stock could remain elevated even if the valuation appears stretched. A relatively small public float, intense demand for AI-related investments, strong support from underwriting banks, and the prospect of rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index could provide powerful momentum in the weeks following the debut.
That possibility is one reason Morningstar’s bearish valuation has not significantly dampened market enthusiasm.
Could the Listing Push Musk Beyond $1 Trillion?
The IPO is also reigniting discussion about Elon Musk’s personal fortune.
According to Forbes estimates published on June 2, Musk’s net worth stands at approximately $824 billion. His wealth is primarily tied to his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX, with the latter becoming increasingly important after the xAI acquisition.
Analysts have suggested that if public markets embrace SpaceX at the valuations currently being discussed, Musk’s holdings could appreciate dramatically. Some estimates indicate his SpaceX stake alone could be worth well over $600 billion.
That has led to speculation that the listing could make Musk the first person in history to surpass a net worth of $1 trillion.
Whether that milestone becomes reality depends less on accounting and more on investor psychology. Public markets will ultimately decide how much confidence they place in a company that dominates satellite internet, launches rockets at an unprecedented pace, and is simultaneously attempting to build a massive artificial intelligence business.
The xAI Factor Extends Beyond Wall Street
The acquisition of xAI has become one of the most controversial elements of the SpaceX story, not only because of its financial implications but also because of the growing political and environmental scrutiny surrounding the business.
Since relocating operations to the Memphis area in 2024, xAI has faced resistance from local residents and some public officials. Concerns have centered on infrastructure expansion, environmental impact, and permitting issues.
The controversy intensified in early 2026 when xAI announced plans for a new data center in Southaven near the Tennessee–Mississippi border. Critics pointed to complaints involving unpermitted turbines and questioned the pace of the company’s expansion. Reports indicate the number of disputed turbines has climbed to 46 since December.
Those local disputes may seem disconnected from SpaceX’s IPO, but they underscore a broader challenge facing the combined company. Investors are not simply buying a launch provider or a satellite internet network. They are buying into an increasingly complex collection of businesses tied together by Musk’s vision and reputation.
That complexity helps explain why opinions on SpaceX vary so dramatically. To some investors, the company represents the most ambitious growth story of the decade. To others, it is a business carrying a valuation that already assumes years of future success.
The market will soon decide which side has the stronger argument.